When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

This is something I ponder often if the SHTF I would anticipate a loss of electricity or at least the loss of the internet so communication would be minimal and what may come across the radio would be undoubtedly controlled. So you really would have no way to know how bad things were and where things were bad. You might have some general idea but I doubt you will receive live news coverage from the hotspots.

For me if the major unrest would only last for a month or two I would probably hold up in my house, but if it was going to be long term longer than 6 months I think I would try and make my way to a more rural location. I would hate to stay at my house until I was out of supplies and then have the S still hitting the F and have to move to a rural location then. So how would you determine whether to bug out immediately or stay home?

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

I say bug out immediately...
Like this week or next....or ASAP.

Better safer than sorry

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Here's a major discussion on the subject of During a Disaster Event Should You Stay at Home or Leave?

Different types of disasters may require a different response if a family wishes to maximize their chances for long-term survival. Therefore each family should have several different disaster plans they could successfully implement depending on the circumstances. These plans should include:

1.Staying at your home and being able to survive for a reasonable period of time without any outside assistance, and

2.Quickly and efficiently evacuating your home and traveling to a predetermined destination.

Neither one of the above strategies would always be the best choice for every possible type of disaster situation. Therefore each family should evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of both of the above options based on: (1) the type of disaster, (2) where they currently live, (3) the specific needs of their individual family members, (4) the amount of supplies they have stored for a disaster emergency, and (5) their ability to actually evacuate their current home or apartment.

Staying at home is probably the best overall strategy for most families in a variety of different disaster type situations. However, there are a few scenarios where your continued long-term survival may necessitate the evacuation of your home. For example, consider each of the following situations:

Fire in a city, suburb, or country: The only option is to leave and to leave quickly. Even if the fire doesn't reach your home, the smoke could make it impossible to breathe, or the heat could kill you. If your home does survive then the smoke from the fire will probably saturate many of your possessions and they will have to be replaced.

Flooding From Heavy Rains or Hurricanes: During severe flash flooding many homes, trees, and cars are completely swept away. If you stay you die. In other areas only the first floor of a home may be under water. You might be safe on the second floor, or in the attic, or on your roof. In most flooding situations the water does eventually recede and you can go downstairs. However, the building foundation is now weakened, the floors are warped, the walls are cracked and peeling, and the appliances are ruined. It these cases it frequently costs less to rebuild from scratch than to repair all the damaged areas. And living in the home during the repairs is not an option because the mold and mildew that is now growing in your floors and walls will produce air-borne spores that will make you sick and gradually kill you. If this situation your only option will be to leave. (Note: If you become unexpectedly stranded in your home during a flood and you can't evacuate, then you should quickly transfer your most important possessions to the second floor or attic to reduce the possibility of their becoming water damaged.)

Drought: The lakes dry up. The city water supply is exhausted. The city must be evacuated. You may stay if you wish but why would you want to? What type of people do you think will become your new neighbors? How will you survive when your current supply of food and water is eventually gone and the drought continues? Without rain there will be no way to replenish your water supply and no way to grow more food. Without water how will the city survive if someone's very small cooking fire accidentally gets out of control and quickly spreads throughout a very, very dry building? In a very short period of time the entire city will be in flames. And if the city has already been evacuated then you will not receive any warning until you see the flames or smell the smoke, assuming it doesn't happen while you are asleep.

Epidemic: Is the disease spreading by water, air, human contact, fleas, lice, mosquitoes, flies, or some combination of methods? What percent of the population is dying? Staying inside your home in this situation would probably be the best solution unless the virus is being spread through the air or by insects. If that is the case and you are living in a heavily populated area then how long will it take the virus to eventually make its way into your air supply or home? If you had a gas mask or face filters then you might be able to escape to a remote region of a national forest where the virus will have a smaller chance of reaching and infecting you.

Martial Law: Why was it implemented? What are the restrictions? And do you really want to live in a heavily populated area that is being policed by the military and where you could be executed by anyone in the military for any reason at any time without any type of trial?

Political or Religious Persecution: What if all registered Republicans are suddenly declared to be enemies of the state? Or all Democrats? Or all Protestants or Catholics or Muslins? Some of you may be laughing right now and saying this is impossible and it could never happen in this country. I truly hope you are right. But what if you are wrong? What if you suddenly heard on the news that you are now a member of a group of people that has been identified as being enemies of the state? What would be your plan for survival? If you remain where you currently live it would only result in your immediate arrest, trial, and either imprisonment or execution. During World War II in Germany there were millions of Jews, Christians, and several other groups of individuals who learned this lesson the hard way. And Germany is not an isolated example. This has happened many, many times in many different places during the history of our world.

None of these things are pleasant to think about but the above threats are real. If any one of them should occur where you now live then you may need to evacuate your home or apartment very quickly in order to have any chance for long-term survival.

How to quickly and efficiently evacuate your home or apartment is not something most people take the time to think about. However, over the past few years the increasing number of families that have had to quickly evacuate their homes is extraordinary. Entire families and communities have been uprooted and moved to another area and in many cases they will never be able to return to their homes or to the life they once knew. Hurricanes, flooding, and forest fires have resulted in the loss of billions of dollars worth of possessions and have claimed an unknown number of lives. Devastating winter weather has crippled many areas and left hundreds of thousands of homes without electricity or heat in the middle of winter and forced people to seek asylum and basic survival in community shelters, schools and churches.

Flash floods and forest fires happen so quickly that people do not have the time to carefully consider what they should take with them. Later when they return and find their home and possessions reduced to cinders, or ruined from water damage, they wished they'd had more time to think about their choices before they were forced to evacuate.

Therefore, before a disaster strikes, prudent individuals will make a simple list of the most important things to salvage in the event of a disaster. Later, if a disaster should force them to evacuate their home then they can consult their list and quickly execute their plan and collect and save their most important possessions. They could salvage the things they would need to survive under difficult circumstances, and things that would make their transition to a different life style not only possible but also a little easier for their entire family.

If you survive a disaster then you can start over. If you have a plan, starting over will not be as difficult as someone who evacuates without a plan. Unfortunately some of the people who survive without a plan will eventually resort to robbing and/or killing. Predators do not discriminate and they will prey on one another as well as on the helpless. Human predators are usually a self-correcting problem during a disaster, if the disaster lasts long enough.

If you must evacuate your home you should have carefully considered ahead of time where you will go. Your destination should not be a last minute decision because your choice of a destination is as important as carefully selecting which items to take with you.

There's much more at the link above.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

IMHO forget the internet when SHTF. pre-net communications will be king, cell phones, gone,land lines unless your grid is old, gone.Local radio if your rural will be accurate for a while,until TPTB seize control of all broadcasts. CB radios and Ham will be the best bet.I assume your anticipating TEOTWAWKI situation like a Nuclear attack or general war by the way your describing very sudden collapse. forget TV as well, the networks will be doing all the "reporting" and the affiliates will just carry the national reports. It would vary IMO on the crisis, a 9/11 event expect what we had last time, it would be sudden, and without warning. erratic,unreliable coverage and much speculation with very little real news. luckily it was only a few buildings attacked if that would have been a NBC attack, the city would have been totally in chaos. If its a Red Dawn type event, expect signs, like naval or troop movements(this is the point id bug out), posturing,and threats,once a few skirmishes occur, id go no later than then.In that event expect somewhat honest reporting, as our blocs PTB will want full assistance from the populace.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

What?

I bugged out 3 years ago...

Not safe in the cities
and Roads out will be Jam Packed

whatever

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

"When Do You Decide To Bug Out?"

Six years ago.

If you "bug out" of the cities when the shit already slammed into the blades, you are TOO LATE.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

As a wise person once said (TnAndy) paraphrased quote from memory" when its time to BO its to late"

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

I'm staying put unless my town is nuked. I actually think I have a decent situation. My neighbors are helpful and they have skills and resources. I'm just far enough away from the metropolis without being too far away.

As St. Peter answered when Christ asked if he was going to desert Him like the rest of the weak hands: "To whom would we go?"

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

If the Internet goes down, that is a definite cue for me to make trails post-haste.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

i'm thinking around 2:00, or so.
after the lunch rush but before the evening commute gets started....

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

For me that is definately one of the signs. I would probably give it a day or two. Make sure it is not just me or my ISP. After that I am gone. Bug first ask questions later in that scenario. You can always come back if it is a false alarm.

If martial law is declared in any Canadian city.

If I start to hear rumors of round ups or something similar. This would likely occur after the internet and/or telecommunications are cut which explains my first reason.

A nuke goes off in any North American city.

There are probably other reasons that don't come to mind right now.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Thinking back I guess I must of bugged out about 30yrs ago now but not really if you understand what I mean.Start now its a lot of work and you will need all the time you can get.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Exactly.

What would the plans be when you get to a "more rural area" ?

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

The OP is Not liking these replies
He jumped on me for mine

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

My guess is he is probably looking for a little more information than "bug out now". This is a tough one because no one knows what the reason may be for the needed bug-out. We live in a fairly rural area and we're set up well because we have our own propane tank and well water, fenced yard. We aren't too close to a city. But would I consider this a bug-out location? Probably not. It really depends on what happens. What if looting and crime gets uncontrollable? One would want to be waaaay out in the country as far away from civilization as possible. That would be a tough thing to do and would have to be planned for in advance - stocked with food, gardening stuff, shelter, etc. So I guess our plan is to stay put for as long as possible. If we lived in a city I would make plans now to get to a more rural area now.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

I have to ask the same question,what are your plans once you get to a more rural location?

It would at this time be better to move there and make a place for yourself.

It seems you are going to become a refugee at the mercy of whoever if you are simply fleeing.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Could someone please summarize the bug out logic again? Is this primarily for city dwellers to escape the angry, hungry masses? Is it to avoid marshal law? Remind me why we would want to run away from comfortable shelter stocked with food and water and supplies.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Well....because cities and urban areas will be targets for attack,strongholds of government power,have no food except what is trucked in,have much worse crime in normal times let alone in an emergency...things like that.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

So then it is a consideration primarily for city folk? I can see that. I'm curious as to how far away from a metropolis would be considered safe. It seems to me that once you get far enough away that there are predominantly single-family homes and a fair amount of woods, you'd be out of the grasp of the threats you describe. Do some think you need to go as far as some remote area? Seems like then you'd be introducing a whole new set of personal risks.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

That's assuming you are bugging to the woods to camp or something. What if you are bugging to a rural location owned by a family member?

I have a few places I can bug out to. It depends on the situation at the time where I will choose to go.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

My opinion is that you would want to be at least 2-3 hours drive from a very large center.

If you were only a half hour drive away then you are likely too close. Desperate people from the city would be willing to risk a bit of gas to secure some food or other supplies from nearby rural property. Wasting a full tank of gas and driving out to a remote and possibly hostile territory is much less likely.

I would say minimum 2-3 hours (the further the better) from any large city but 20-30min from a town of 5-10 thousand would be ideal.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

This is a well thought-out answer. But I'm wondering, why wouldn't it be advisable to simply live in the town of 5-10 thousand, as long as you have your own space? What do you view as the risk of living in such a small town? Crime? It seems to me that if living in a community with a few thousand people is some kind of social risk, then you have to ask what it is that you are surviving for.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Living in the town would be good too as long as you have valuable skills you can trade for food, heating fuel and other necessities. I lean towards having enough land to provide food, water and fuel for cooking and heating. I would prefer to be a little more independent and have a bit more privacy but that is just me.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

bug out early and beat the rush...

i've always lived rurally because too many people are unpredictable and unstable for the most part, bunch of crazies running around out there unfortunately...

move rural now cause it will take you more time to get your routine down than you might imagine, and you will learn what items you really need and which ones uselessly fill up storage space...

i've spent several years of my life in living in various cabins off the road system accessible only by boat, snowmachine, or ATV or walking...each presented its own set of obstacles to learn and overcome before an efficient and viable daily routine of existence was established...
http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=370034&highlight=gasilat


so whether its on the road system or off the road system you should move now so you can learn how to live in that locale...



moose in the yard...
..................

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Well or those who might live in a good sized town...our current area would NOT be a very good location for various reasons...

Some give X amount of miles,me it depends upon the area,people act in certain ways when confronted with a pending disaster...while our future home is not that far away from a large urban area in NC,it is far enough away that I do not worry too much...

Generally speaking I would agree with this...unless the single family homes are full of Deliverance types...:biggrin:

It depends upon the person,IF I was given the choice,I would like to try living quite far from 'civilisation' simply because it would be interesting...

You just need to rely upon yourself.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Very Beautiful !
Love the Green there.
May I ask what state?

I'm in Central Ca. and its really Brown right now. :no_ma:

I'm thinkin when I'm done in construction we wanna move some place greener.
We have a daughter in Ark. may go there.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

The only reason Arkansas was settled was the people on the way to Oregon had a mule that died and the wagon wouldn't move itself, so they stayed.

Just saying..... :biggrin:

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

:4_1_72:

I don't doubt that for a second
thanks Andy

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Its time to bug out when you look out your window and see this....

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1134/...c98001f675.jpg,


this....


http://www.cinemastrikesback.com/wp-...06/zombies.jpg

this...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3437/...19c4d7b4bb.jpg or

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

What about this????

:565::565::565::565:

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Then its time to impale a ninja.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

this could easily happen again in any big city

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Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

If the G20 comes to your city....

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

unless one is teamed up with neighbors, dead end road, ... i think a tiny town/village< 500 or so, very poor[read; not an oil well, coal mine, power plant, etc.] is best.

edit add;
the food store shelves are emptied is the last sign to know bug out time has come & now gone past.

also what size is a city/metro u should be hours from; million, 100,000, etc.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

If you a focusing on bugging out, probably means

You have already reached the conclusion that

You are in an untenable situation, should

The SHTF, for whatever reason.

Take the same amount of energy to

Consider scenarios of bugging in.

Both have their risks.

Me, I'm in the boonies.

And as a matter of fact, teamed up with neighbors

On a dead end spur road

Off of a dead end road.



scyth

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

yep!

tis the magnitude & multitude of these problems that make 'close' predicting impossible; though within a city of 20 + thousand looks like probable mistake to me.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

I sold most of my gold on the BD Nucleo last night. Me and the Gf found a little place on 2 acres in Nor Cal with a well and great sunshine.
WE ARE GOING TO HOMESTEAD.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

congrats!
doing the same homesteading here!
i think selling may have been smart market- wise; & a place seems likely to be better than anything else money can buy!

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

A minimum of an hour (driving time) from a metro area of 500,000 or less. A minimum of two hours from larger areas.

EDIT: I want to make clear that I mean "one hour = at least 60 miles per hour." NOT typical commute/rush-hour traffic.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Consider that many suburbanites will commute 30 - 45 minutes into their job daily. This usually equates to a 30 mile radius out from the major urban boundary. Once you are 40-50 miles out you start hitting the little towns - 30k size and smaller. There are a lot of people in those surrounding areas, that live there because they can't afford to live closer to the city, many of them that also may be of lower ethical/moral values, so the only threat many not be just coming out of the city.

The east coast will be tougher cuz of wall to wall people from new england down to miami.
The middle-east has the appalachias and will be a destination for a lot of people, don't know where the mid-west will bug out too- its too open and flat in most places so those few hidey holes will become crowded fast. Out west there are great distances between urban areas with a lot of desert in between so services and self suffu=iciency will be limited. I don't know where the city folk think they will bug out too but there isn't as much destination space out there as some may think.

I agree that 1hr or more away from cities of 100k or more is good but the leading edge of that is closer than you think.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Suburbanites have lower morals than inner city thugs?

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Don't want to bust your bubble too bad, but

I don't even live in the suburbs, but very rural, and,

Yes, we have meth cookers and meth users (tweakers),

A thriving trade in other flavors of drugs

(Oxycontin, heroin, cocaine - hell, B.C. bud is

Practically benign compared to the rest of the inventory),

Child molesters, wife and husband beaters, rapists,

And a number of other bad sorts.

The only substantive difference I see is a relative lack

Of gangs and/or gang bangers.

The idea that you can escape society's present ills by

Simply moving to the country absolutely floors me.

Very, very bad strategy, if you are thinking that way.

Additionally, if you game out a SHTF situation, with panicked

People of all sorts blowing out of cities/suburbia,

It will only get a lot worse.


scyth

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

If any of you have experienced an evacuation you would realise there won't really be throngs of people escaping...they will be stuck in traffic and will sit there until they run out of fuel and then won't have any idea what to do.

Few will make it out to the rural areas in my opinion.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Your question relates to a lot of other questions that also have ambiguous answers. I wondered for a long time just what people thought "TSHTF" meant: what event or condition would be the signal? I finally realized that preppers didn't know what they were prepping for. Some of them could make up elaborate but unlikely scenarios, some had vague ideas about possible conditions, but not one had any clear idea what the crisis might involve.

A crisis might be a lot of things, each with requirements that don't apply to any other crisis. What if a flood? A fire storm? Herds of rabid chihuahuas? A solar thingie that knocks out the electric grid? What if this? What if that? A more important question is "What makes you think you'll be safer there than here?"

As for the financial collapse, the best advice I have found is "We [economic analysts] can predict what will happen, but nobody can predict timing." If that is what you're prepping for, you should have bugged out years ago.

Re: When Do You Decide To Bug Out?
 

Sold the house in L.A. and bugging out, so to speak, - tomorrow. Bought some land and a house about 60 miles from a very small city in a secret part of the country that seems to be relatively survivable compared to most other places in the USA.

We are pretty excited. We hope to get setup enough before anything bad can happen. We are quite possibly already too late. Wish us luck, if we get another week or so we will have okay chances. If we can get a year or two, we should be doing much better.

Get out of the big cities if you can. L.A. is a deathtrap.